Amazon Stock Future Price Prediction

AMZN -  USA Stock  

USD 3,350  71.94  2.10%

Amazon Inc stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Amazon shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Amazons future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Amazon and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Amazons fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Amazon Inc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.

Please continue to Amazon Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

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It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Amazon based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Amazon stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Amazon over a specific investment horizon. Using Amazon hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Amazon Inc from the perspective of Amazon response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.

Amazon Operating Margin is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The companys current value of Operating Margin is estimated at 6.40. Return on Investment is expected to rise to 23.45 this year, although the value of Inventory Turnover will most likely fall to 9.18.

This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Amazon. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Amazon to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Amazon because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Amazon after-hype prediction price

    

  $ 3423.4  

There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Amazons price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Amazon in the context of predictive analytics.

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Amazon. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Amazons peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Amazons competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Amazon Inc.

Amazon After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Amazon at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Amazon or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of Amazon, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.

      Expected price to next headline 

Amazon Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Amazons stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Amazons historical news coverage. Amazons after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3,079 and 3,425, respectively. We have considered Amazons daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this methods predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.

Current Value

3,350

31st of August 2021

Amazon is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Amazon Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.

Amazon Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Amazon is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Amazon backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular companys price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Amazon, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.10  1.55  1.66   0.21  8 Events / Month2 Events / MonthIn about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
3,3503,4230.05 

Amazon Hype Timeline

Amazon Inc is presently traded for 3,350. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.66 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.21. Amazon is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline with price projected to jump to 3423.4 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 9.31%. The price upswing on the next news is forecasted to be 0.05% whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.1%. The volatility of related hype on Amazon is about 75.24% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 3349.84. The company reported the previous years revenue of 419.13 B. Net Income was 26.9 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 152.76 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecastedpress releasewill be in about 8 days.

Please continue to Amazon Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Amazon Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Amazons direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Amazons future price movements. Getting to know how Amazon rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Amazon may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Amazon Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Amazon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Amazon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Amazon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Amazon Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Amazon stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Amazon Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a textbook version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Amazon based on analysis of Amazon hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.

We also calculate exposure to Amazons market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Amazons related companies.

 2018 2019 2020 2021 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.910.380.340.46
Interest Coverage12.7118.9320.9729.11

Story Coverage note for Amazon

The number of cover stories for Amazon depends on current market conditions and Amazons risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Amazon is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Amazons long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Amazon Short Properties

Amazons future price predictability will typically decrease when Amazons long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Amazon Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Amazons investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Amazons indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.

Shares Percent Shares Out0.96%
Short Percent Of Float1.11%
Float Shares452.17M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day2.56M
Shares Short Prior Month4.81M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month3.27M
Date Short Interest15th of June 2021

Please continue to Amazon Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Amazon Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Amazons statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Search module to search for activelly traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.

Complementary Tools for Amazon Stock analysis

When running Amazon Inc price analysis, check to measure Amazons market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Amazon is operating at the current time. Most of Amazons value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Amazons future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Amazons price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Amazon to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.

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The market value of Amazon Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Amazon that is recorded on the companys balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Amazons value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Amazons true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Amazons market value can be influenced by many factors that dont directly affect Amazon Inc underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.

Please note, there is a significant difference between Amazons value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Amazon value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amazons price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

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