fortheemprah my bad, lets make it 5% week-on-week gain until end of the year. How bout that?

11/03/2021 11:56 PM


What do you guys reckon?

12/03/2021 12:00 AM

12/03/2021 2:35 PM

probability MISC - Mild impact from 3 long-term Shell charters

Date: 12/03/2021

We maintain BUY on MISC with an unchanged sum-of-parts based fair value of RM8.50/share, which reflects a premium of 3% from our ESG rating of 4 stars. This also implies an FY21F EV/EBITDA of 9x, at parity to its 2-year average.

MISC has secured long-term charter contracts to own and operate 3 newbuild LNG dual-fuel very large crude carriers (VLCCs) from Shell Tankers (Singapore) Pvt Ltd to operate in international waters for 7 years, commencing in 3Q2023.

A dual-fuelled LNG vessel, which has been retrofitted, is able to burn LNG as a bunker fuel. According to a Channoil Consulting-Gibson Shipbrokers study, VLCCs can save up to US$7.7K/day from using LNG instead of conventional bunker fuel that is compliant to the International Maritime Organization’s sulfur standards.

This is not the first time that MISC is involved in LNG dual-fuel petroleum VLCC tankers as the group had earlier secured 2 such charters from Total in April 2020, which are scheduled for delivery in 1H2022. Hence, these 3 new charters from Shell will increase the group’s VLCC fleet by 27% to 15 by 2023.

The announcement did not reveal the capex nor charter rates of the vessels. However, assuming a capex of US$6mil to add a dual-fuel LNG engine system to a newly built VLCC could raise the capex by 7% to US$94mil/vessel. As such, we expect that the total capex of US$282mil (RM1.2bil) for these 3 new vessels could be part of MISC’s growth capex of US$1bil annually.

Assuming 3-year VLCC charter rates of US$28K/day over 20 years and operating costs of US$6K/day, we estimate that these charters could generate a mild project IRR of 6% and slight impact to FY23F earnings. Hence, we maintain MISC’s FY21F–FY23F earnings.

Meanwhile, we expect tanker rates to remain depressed in 1H2021 due to the extension of Saudi Arabia’s quota in April this year and weak crude demand amid global tonnage rising by over 20mil dwt this year, partly offset by expectations of increasing demolition of old vessels after being offloaded from floating storage usage.

Nonetheless, we estimate that the additional construction earnings from the US$2bil Mero-3 FPSO project should be able to offset this main drag from the tanker segment in 1HFY21. By 3QFY21, with the global rollout of Covid-19 vaccinations, we are optimistic that improving economic growth prospects and rising transportation needs will support higher tanker rates towards the traditional seasonal end of the year.

The stock currently trades at a fair FY21F EV/EBITDA of 8x – 1 standard deviation below its 3-year average of 9x, while sustaining a compelling dividend yield of 5%.

Source: AmInvest Research - 12 Mar 2021

12/03/2021 5:40 PM

hazli KUALA LUMPUR (March 11): MISC Bhd has secured seven-year charter contracts from Shell for three newbuilding crude carriers, for operations in international waters.
In a filing today, MISC said the contracts were secured by AET Inc Ltd, the vessel-owning entity of petroleum shipping firm AET Tanker Holdings Sdn Bhd, which is in turn wholly-owned by MISC.
The three vessels are LNG dual fuel very large crude carriers (VLCCs), which will serve Shell’s unit Shell Tankers (Singapore) Pvt Ltd from the third quarter of 2023, the filing said.
It is the first long-term contract announced by MISC this year.
At end-2020, MISC Group’s fleet consisted of more than 100 owned and in-chartered vessels comprising liquefied natural gas (LNG), petroleum and product vessels, very large ethan carriers, 14 floating production systems, as well as two LNG floating storage units. The fleet has a combined deadweight tonnage capacity of more than 11 million tonnes.

12/03/2021 11:02 PM


18/03/2021 11:48 PM

probability @Sean888, excellent sharing. thanks


“We are probably never going to experience a demand increase similar to what we are likely to see over the next nine months for tankers,” said Eirik Haavaldsen, a shipping analyst at Pareto Securities AS in Oslo. “Six months down the road, we will have higher OPEC+ production because the world is going to consume a lot more oil as vaccines take effect and economies recover.”

18/03/2021 11:55 PM

mamatede lets start storing crude at sea again.

18/03/2021 11:58 PM

probability China Unleashes Army of LNG Upstarts Hungry for Spot Supply

15 March 2021,including%20Guangdong%20Energy%20Group%20Co.

China’s smaller liquefied natural gas buyers are seizing on reforms that’ve opened access to import infrastructure to boost competition, issuing a spate of tenders for the fuel over the past month.

The second-tier gas firms, including Guangdong Energy Group Co. and Shenzhen Energy Group Co., are forecast to continue to seek more cargoes with spot LNG prices low, adding a new source of demand for global exporters, according to energy consultant FGE.

“We can expect more emerging Chinese players to be in the market for spot procurement in the coming months as China continues to open up its LNG receiving facilities,” said Alicia Wee, a senior analyst at FGE in Singapore.

Until recently, China imported most of its LNG through the three major state-owned energy giants, which owned pipelines, import terminals and distributed the fuel directly to smaller players. That’s changed with the formation of China Oil & Gas Pipeline Network Corp., known as PipeChina, which has consolidated the infrastructure into a single firm.

PipeChina has awarded over ten companies third-party access to its terminals, meaning smaller players can issue tenders directly when the need arises, instead of going through a larger state company, according to traders who requested anonymity to discuss private details.

Chinese gas firms are tapping into the spot market where fuel is cheaper Companies like Dongguan Daosen Natural Gas Co. which bought its first cargo via a direct tender this month, have been operating in domestic markets for years, according to Wood Mackenzie. Shenzhen Energy and Guangzhou Gas are among others to have bought cargoes in recent weeks.

While the infrastructure reforms are help diversify the field of importers, the majority of terminal access is still being awarded to the nation’s top buyers, including China National Offshore Oil Corp. and PetroChina Co. Terminal capacity available to third parties offered by PipeChina is 5.7 million tons per year, a fraction of China’s total capacity of 87 million tons per year at the end of 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie.

A further drop in Asian LNG prices could prompt another wave of spot cargo purchases by smaller firms this summer, said Beijing-based Wood Mackenzie research director Miaoru Huang.


The benchmark Japan-Korea marker fell to $5.56 per million British thermal units on March 2, the lowest level since last October, according to data from S&P Global Platts. Prices have since increased, in part on higher demand from the second-tier importers, and were trading on Monday around $6.70 for April delivery.

Smaller buyers are also signing more long-term deals. The firms accounted for 83% of total Chinese contracts signed last year, from a 26% share in 2019, according to BloombergNEF.

19/03/2021 12:53 PM

xiang0049 See you guys at RM20

20/03/2021 12:30 AM

probability China’s Pursuit of Natural Gas Jolts Markets and Drains Neighbors

March 5, 2021

China’s Pursuit of Natural Gas Jolts Markets and Drains Neighbors
Beijing’s quest to run world’s second-largest economy on cleaner energy is reshaping global trade in the fossil fuel

Beijing’s efforts to shift from coal to gas as a fuel over the longer term has drawn ever-larger liquefied natural gas imports

China’s quest to anchor its industrial growth to cleaner energy is whiplashing global prices of liquefied natural gas, reshaping trade in the world’s fastest-growing fossil fuel and raising fears of power blackouts in neighboring economies competing for the resource.

A sudden confluence of global supply outages and an unusually cold winter tripled LNG prices in mid-January to a record $32.50 a million British thermal units from early December—and brought into focus China’s increasingly outsize role.

Underpinned by its economic boom and rising presence in LNG spot markets, Beijing’s efforts to shift from coal to gas as a fuel over the longer term has drawn ever-larger LNG imports in recent years, tightening supplies available to gas-dependent neighbors Japan and South Korea. The three economies account for 60% of the world’s LNG consumption.

China’s voracity worsened a natural-gas shortage in January in Japan—which China last year outstripped as the world’s largest LNG importer—that put parts of Japan at risk of blackouts. In December, China imported 7.6 million metric tons, the most ever.

Utilities in Japan reported severe shortages of natural gas and averted blackouts by turning back to coal, oil and other older means of power generation.

Chinese LNG consumption rose last year by some 11%, far outpacing the 1% rise globally, data from consulting firm Wood Mackenzie shows. Imports meet about 45% of China’s demand, which has been rising since President Xi Jinping set around 2015 decadeslong plans to pipe natural gas into millions of Chinese homes and factories. Beijing views natural gas as a steppingstone—a cleaner fossil fuel—in its campaign for carbon neutrality by 2060.

Provincial authorities, including in southern Guangdong, began requiring more manufacturers to burn gas instead of coal last year, official reports say. And Beijing loosened rules in the past two years to allow more companies to import LNG, turning provincial gas distributors into more active bidders in spot markets once reserved for a handful of state-controlled giants.

“When you have an extreme need for supply and physically can’t deliver on it, then that underpins this type of price rallies.” said Jeffrey Moore, analytics manager at researcher S&P Global Platts.

Power Moves

Chinas drive for natural gas is driving recentprice volatility, eating into supplies for othereconomies and shaking up trade.

Prices for the fuel have fallen to around $6.30 MMBtu in mid-February, an 81% dive from January’s record, as the fading cold snap eased buying competition. Just weeks earlier, the outsize imports didn’t seem to be enough. Platts estimates show that LNG stocks in northeast Asia were 64% of capacity heading into winter, well below the 70% average in previous years, forcing buyers to the spot market.

Unexpected shutdowns of export plants in Australia, the world’s top producer, and elsewhere, meant Asia had to rely on imports that needed three times as many days—or more—to ship.

In late December, China’s top economic policy body ordered domestic gas producers to operate at capacity and LNG shipping terminals to give priority to imports. Authorities also had to fall back to coal-fired power and ordered more coal imports, too.

“We are doing everything possible to increase supply of the resource,” the National Development and Reform Commission said at the time. “We are making every effort to increase the purchase of spot LNG.”

In Japan, power plants in the heavily populated Kansai region were running at 99% of generation capacity; more than the usual 60% for LNG-fueled plants. Japan depends on natural gas for about a third of its electricity.

The strains on Japan’s grid forced operators to turn to old playbooks, including running some plants beyond capacity and, in the case of Tokyo-based utility Electric Power Development Co., burning crude oil for two days in January to keep up power generation.

20/03/2021 11:26 AM

probability The heady prices in January were profitable even at the height of the rally: In China, prices for end-use LNG trucked into metropolitan Beijing were 20% higher than imports. The gap widened in smaller and less-developed cities.

“Our biggest priority is to have stable supply, which means we purchase from the spot market when necessary,” said Korea Gas Corp. spokesperson Kim Chi-ho. “This year, our spot purchases increased due to unexpected cold waves.

Like most of its counterparts, state-owned Kogas locks in more than half its LNG supply through long-term contracts but relies on the spot market to meet sudden demand.

Taking Share

China has been buying ever-larger imports of LNG from Australia, the worlds largest supplier, which has been shipping relatively less to Korea and Japan in recent years.
Australia LNG exports

China’s huge presence has chipped away at its neighbors’ supplies. For years, Australia has been the top exporter to Japan, accounting for about a third of its LNG imports. But last year, Japan imported 26.3 million metric tons from Australia, down from each of the previous two years. Australian LNG shipments to China rose 5% year over year to a record 29 million metric tons last year.

Korean data shows that Australian LNG imports have stayed largely flat since 2018. Korea began looking elsewhere for shipments in recent years. The U.S. share of Korea’s LNG imports has risen to 14% in 2019 from 1% in 2016, after Kogas agreed in 2017 to long-term supply by Houston-based Cheniere Energy Inc.

But China, too, is shipping more from the U.S., with imports reaching a record 3.2 million metric tons last year, up 50% from 2018.

China’s gas demand is set to keep rising, underpinning the potential for supply shocks to turn prices volatile in coming years.

“Even before winter, there were a lot of policies to hasten infrastructure investment” in China’s LNG storage and connectivity, said Woodmac analyst Miaoru Huang. “But I think after this price spike, there will be renewed incentive to advance the build.”

20/03/2021 11:30 AM

7036hisap_darah China cut supply LNG from Australia and swift to Malaysia. YES

20/03/2021 4:43 PM

probability Aframax freight rates jump to nine-month highs

February 26, 2021

MISC is a proud owner of 29 Aframax (50% of its petroleum vessels)

21/03/2021 3:43 PM

probability Asian Aframax freight rates surge to w90 amid switch to clean products


Aframax freight rates on key ex-Asia routes have reached w90 for the first time in 2021 on the back of tight supply as several ships clean up to load refined products, many ballast to the Mediterranean and cracking margins improve for refining light crudes, market participants said March 4.

The benchmark Persian-Gulf-East route was assessed at w90 March 3, up 24% week on week, S&P Global Platts data showed.

Rates on ex-Asia routes had hovered below w70 earlier in the year, dragging down the earnings of owners to negative, and further gains are potentially in the offing. If OPEC+ opts to increase crude output at its meeting later in the day, the Aframax freight market could receive a further boost, one broker said.

21/03/2021 3:53 PM

probability Qatar Petroleum tenders to ship owners for charter of LNG carriers

21 Mar 2021

LNG shipping leads MISC to be Malaysia’s top stock

This year, it signed agreements to supply LNG vessels to Exxon Mobil Corp and Mitsubishi Corp, after the world’s biggest LNG exporter Qatar Petroleum set off a “stampede” by announcing plans to order as many as 100 new carriers, he said.

24/03/2021 12:32 AM

probability Malaysias Petronas Chemicals pins hopes on Saudi Aramco JV
Petrochemical and refinery project in Johor expected to boost output and profits

March 25, 2021

Malaysia Pengerang refinery to boost demand for tankers: experts

MISCs tankers

25/03/2021 10:55 PM

probability Petronas becomes world’s first to produce LNG from two floating facilities

25 Mar 2021, 5:50 PM

The cargo was loaded onto the Seri Camar LNG Carrier operated by MISC Bhd for shipment to Petronas LNG Buyer in Thailand, it said in a statement today.

Similar to our flagship floating facility, PFLNG Duas mobility will allow us to unlock even more marginal and stranded gas fields in the future, providing Petronas with new and sustainable sources of LNG to meet the growing demand for cleaner energy, he added.

25/03/2021 11:34 PM


The winners

The canal blockage is certainly not bad news for everyone — spot freight rates are set to jump even higher on pent-up demand, making money for the operators, market watchers say.

“A more prolonged closure of the Suez Canal would see container shipping as the biggest beneficiary, while tanker, dry bulk and air cargo might also see some higher rates,” wrote JPMorgan, describing the tightening of shipping rates “as a upside risk.”

Who is set to benefit most? JPMorgan highlights Asian liners, saying that despite higher bunker costs due to longer rerouted journeys and increased congestion, they expect higher spot freight rates. “This instead of hurting profitability is expected to be positive for bottom-line for Asia liners, in our view,” the bank wrote.

26/03/2021 3:37 PM

probability MISC shipping routes:

Same demand, longer routes, more service charges

26/03/2021 6:56 PM

sheep The Ever Given ship has been freed in the Suez Canal, after being stuck for nearly a week. The Ever Given ship was dislodged by an Egyptian crew in the Suez Canal early Monday morning, after it was stuck for nearly a week, reports say.

29/03/2021 12:24 PM

probability Opec sees rising oil demand as it plans to open taps
Tuesday, 13 Apr 2021

13/04/2021 10:44 PM

LossAversion 7 sen dividend exdate 24 May

06/05/2021 2:41 PM

James Ng
[转贴] [Video:浅谈MISC BHD, MISC, 3816] - James的股票投资James Share Investing

15/05/2021 7:08 PM

02/06/2021 11:22 AM

pharker What happened? See price moving, blind2 hantam few lots first. Why shipping good business? Freight rate improving, I remember there is an index, something like baltic Dry index? Showing good signs or what?

16/06/2021 11:14 AM

dompeilee 1.2 lots still staked here!

16/06/2021 11:20 AM

Nam Uni looks like the best index linked counter going to rocket

17/06/2021 12:19 AM

vcinvestor @zestyy90 unlucky timing

17/06/2021 2:39 PM

19/06/2021 11:57 AM

wallstreetrookie Here is why MISC did not experience the growth in early 2021

2011- MISC Berhad (MISC) today issued a statement through the local stock exchange, Bursa Malaysia, announcing its decision to exit the liner business (container shipping) via cessation of the said business.

The Company, in its announcement to the exchange, explained that the radical change in the operating dynamics of the liner industry which is driven by high operating cost and rapid changes in global trade patterns is challenging the validity of today’s operating models. With the pursuit of size being the centre of this change, leading operators are now testing the size limits of vessels in order to maximise economies of scale and realise greater cost efficiency. This push for investments in larger vessels comes at a time when operators are struggling to stay profitable with a depressed freight rate environment, which is not expected to improve any time soon due to the continued heavy delivery of new container vessels.

17/07/2021 1:48 PM

rasulx_786 wallstreetrookie, the news is for year 2011. now 2021...

22/07/2021 8:43 PM

wallstreetrookie I post this to stress the fact that MISC missed the biggest bull run of container and freight shipping of the century because of the decision to dispose their shipping lines. This news is relevant to explain why MISC:MK never experienced the growth or SP appreciation. Many shareholders were disappointed.

24/07/2021 10:53 PM

wallstreetrookie Moving the focus to O&G sector was such a bad move.

24/07/2021 10:54 PM

ToTheMoon Even NOL could not survive its container shipping, wht makes u think MISC can? MISC sold container shipping business more than 10 years already, another one or two years, its few chemical tankers also will be sold.

17/08/2021 9:23 AM

ToTheMoon Container shipping got cartel like mearsk, cma cga, Asia oocl etc.. Typical company wont have place. How many shipping companies collapsed in last decade.

17/08/2021 9:25 AM

wallstreetrookie True, MISC has too many scandals in the past with its employees and the disposal of their container shipping line was such a HUGE mistake.

18/08/2021 10:18 AM

wallstreetrookie I would be buyer if this drops too much. Since it is still one of the biggest and most stable shipping companies in Malaysia. This and Westports.

18/08/2021 10:19 AM

wallstreetrookie One day this company will go private for sure. Very profitable

25/08/2021 10:26 AM

wallstreetrookie Share price just wont up. Waste of my capital

25/08/2021 10:45 AM

wallstreetrookie If we break the 10-year resistance of RM9, which likely wont happen forever.

25/08/2021 4:37 PM

wallstreetrookie A supply chain crunch that was meant to be temporary now looks like it will last well into next year as the surging delta variant upends factory production in Asia and disrupts shipping, posing more shocks to the world economy.

Manufacturers reeling from shortages of key components and higher raw material and energy costs are being forced into bidding wars to get space on vessels, pushing freight rates to records and prompting some exporters to raise prices or simply cancel shipments altogether.

“We can’t get enough components, we can’t get containers, costs have been driven up tremendously,” said Christopher Tse, chief executive officer of Hong Kong-based Musical Electronics Ltd., which makes consumer products from Bluetooth speakers to Rubik’s Cubes.

Tse said the cost of magnets used in the puzzle toy have risen by about 50% since March, increasing the production cost by about 7%. “I don’t know if we can make money from Rubik’s Cubes because prices keep changing.”

Bloomberg | Markets

26/08/2021 9:17 AM

wallstreetrookie The market is looking very good today. Looks like I no longer have to do any analysis for Malaysia as the next emerging market. Anyways will be leaving my job as equity strategist soon. Last quarter

30/08/2021 9:23 AM

wallstreetrookie Foreign investors are back. The time has come and there is a probability that they will buy either plantation or shipping companies or financials which form the core industries in Malaysia. Tech companies, not so much given its recent run-up.

30/08/2021 9:25 AM

fzank ♫ If ever youre in my arms again
This time Ill love you much better

If ever youre in my arms again
This time Ill hold you forever
This time well never end

30/08/2021 11:01 AM

Reach out

Find us at the office

Gieser- Madigan street no. 4, 89728 Tokyo, Japan

Give us a ring

Danyelle Malanche
+96 551 917 434
Mon - Fri, 10:00-17:00

Tell us about you