The Price Surprises page highlights stocks that have unusually large price movement relative to their usual pattern (stocks that are seeing breakouts or abnormally large bull or bear moves.) As a result, there may be trading opportunities in these large-movement stocks.

Stocks are separated between Bullish and Bearish tabs, each ranked by Standard Deviation.

For U.S. and Canadian markets, the page can be filtered by exchange. The All US Exchanges page includes only NYSE, NYSE Arca and NASDAQ stocks, and excludes ETFs. The NYSE, NYSE Arca and NASDAQ pages exclude unit investment trusts, closed-end funds, warrant stocks, preferred securities and any non-SIC classified stock. For the European market, the page can be filtered by country/region.

Site Members may also opt-in to receive an End-of-Day Email report of the top 5 Bullish and Bearish symbols found on the Price Surprises page. The End-of-Day Email digests are sent at 5:30 PM CT, Monday through Friday.

In addition, there are four time-frames to choose from:

  • Intraday - The list of stocks to display on the Intraday page is updated every 10 minutes throughout the trading day. You will see new price data flash on the page. However, stocks are not automatically added or re-ranked on the page until the site performs its 10-minute update.
  • Daily / Weekly / Monthly - The list of stocks to display on these pages is updated once a day. The list of stocks that appear on the Daily / Weekly / Monthly pages will not change until approx. 8pm EST for the Daily page and approx. 9pm EST for the Weekly and Monthly pages. Weekly rankings are calculated using weekly prices and Monthly rankings are calculated using monthly prices and the price change over the past week or month is divided by the 20-week or 20-month standard deviation, respectively.

In order to be considered for inclusion on the Price Surprises page, a stock must have a price between $2 and $10,000 (OTC stocks and Canadian stocks between $0.25 and $10,000), and a daily Volume of at least 1,000 shares.

Standard Deviation

Price movement on the Price Surprises page is defined in terms of the number standard deviations the stock has moved in the latest trading session.  Defining price movement in terms of standard deviations is preferable to using percentage change because using standard deviations puts all the stocks on a level playing field.  There are categories of stocks that are typically more volatile and have larger percentage price changes than other stocks.  For example, low-priced small-cap stocks or high-tech stocks are typically much more volatile than lower volatility stocks such as utility stocks.  If we used percentage change to define price movement, then high-volatility stocks would always dominate the Price Surprises list and we would miss lower-volatility stocks that might have an unusually large movement on a particular day.

In order to calculate the number of standard deviations that a stock moves in the latest session, we use the following formula:

Todays price movement in terms of number of 20-day standard deviations = ln (latest close/previous close) / ((20-day historical volatility/100)/square root of 252))

In this formula we are simply comparing the latest price change to the standard deviation of the price returns over the last 20 sessions.  We are using the price return for the daily change because this is how historical volatility is calculated.  A price return is simply the natural log of the latest close divided by the previous close.  Historical volatility is the measure that we use for the comparison in the denominator of our equation because historical volatility is simply defined as the standard deviation of the price returns, factored up to an annualized number.  Since historical volatility is typically expressed as an annualized number, we need to reduce it to a daily figure for our daily What’s Hot calculation by dividing it by the square root of 252 (i.e., the approximate number of trading days in a year).

Lets look at an example.  A123 Systems (ticker: AONE) on the close of Friday, May 14, 2010 had the following input figures:  5/10/2010 close was $11.46, 5/09/2010 close was $10.33, and the 20-day historical volatility on 5/10/2010 was 66.69%.  Let calculate how many standard deviations A123 Systems moved on 5/10/2010:

Ln (11.46/10.33) / ((66.69/100)/square root of 252) = 2.47

This indicates that A123 Systems on May 14, 2010 moved by 2.47 standard deviations, which is an unusually large move.  According to the normal distribution curve, we would expect a move of more than two standard deviations less than 5% of the time, indicating how unusually large A123 Systems’s price change was on May 14.

Interpretation

The movement of a stock in terms of its standard deviation is also useful to traders because it can be translated into probability terms.  According to the normal distribution bell curve, a stock will show a move of less than one standard deviation (plus or minus) about two-thirds of the time, a move of less than two standard deviations 95% of the time, and a move of less than three standard deviations 99% of the time. Thus, if a trader sees a stock that has moved 3 standard deviations, the odds of that event are only 1% (or 1 in 100), meaning that stock is showing a major move from a statistical standpoint that is outside the realm of normal statistical expectations.


Screen

Available only with a Premier Membership, you can base a Stock Screener off the symbols currently on the page. This lets you add additional filters to further narrow down the list of candidates.

Example:

  1. Click Screen on the page and the Stock Screener opens, pulling in the symbols from the Price Surprises page.
  2. Add additional criteria in the Screener, such as 20-Day Moving Average is greater than the Last Price, or TrendSpotter Opinion is Buy.
  3. View the results and save them to a Watchlist, or save the Screener to run again at a later date.
  4. Running a Saved Screener at a later date will always present a new list of results. Your Saved Screener will always start with the most current set of symbols found on the Price Surprises page before applying your custom filters and displaying new results.
Data Updates

For pages showing Intraday views, we use the current sessions data with new price data appear on the page as indicated by a flash. Stocks: 15 minute delay (Cboe BZX data for U.S. equities is real-time), ET. Volume reflects consolidated markets. Futures and Forex: 10 or 15 minute delay, CT.

The list of symbols included on the page is updated every 10 minutes throughout the trading day. However, new stocks are not automatically added to or re-ranked on the page until the site performs its 10-minute update.

Page Sort

Pages are initially sorted in a specific order (depending on the data presented). You can re-sort the page by clicking on any of the column headings in the table.

Views

Most data tables can be analyzed using Views. A View simply presents the symbols on the page with a different set of columns. Site members can also display the page using Custom Views. (Simply create a free account, log in, then create and save Custom Views to be used on any data table.)

Each View has a Links column on the far right to access a symbols Quote Overview, Chart, Options Quotes (when available), Barchart Opinion, and Technical Analysis page. Standard Views found throughout the site include:

  • Main View: Symbol, Name, Last Price, Change, Percent Change, High, Low, Volume, and Time of Last Trade.
  • Technical View: Symbol, Name, Last Price, Todays Opinion, 20-Day Relative Strength, 20-Day Historic Volatility, 20-Day Average Volume, 52-Week High and 52-Week Low.
  • Performance View: Symbol, Name, Last Price, Weighted Alpha, YTD Percent Change, 1-Month, 3-Month and 1-Year Percent Change.
  • Fundamental View: Available only on equity pages, shows Symbol, Name, Weighted Alpha, Market Cap, P/E Ratio. Earnings Per Share, Beta, Return on Equity, and Price/Sales
Data Table Expand

Unique to Barchart.com, data tables contain an expand option. Click the + icon in the first column (on the left) to expand the table for the selected symbol. Scroll through widgets of the different content available for the symbol. Click on any of the widgets to go to the full page.

Horizontal Scroll on Wide Tables

Especially when using a custom view, you may find that the number of columns chosen exceeds the available space to show all the data. In this case, the table must be horizontally scrolled (left to right) to view all of the information. To do this, you can either scroll to the bottom of the table and use the tables scrollbar, or you can scroll the table using your browsers built-in scroll:

  • Left-click with your mouse anywhere on the table.
  • Use your keyboards left and right arrows to scroll the table.
  • Repeat this anywhere as you move through the table to enable horizontal scrolling.
FlipCharts

Also unique to Barchart, FlipCharts allow you to scroll through all the symbols on the table in a chart view. While viewing FlipCharts, you can apply a custom Chart Template, further customizing the way you can analyze the symbols. FlipCharts are a free tool available to Site Members.

Download

Download is a free tool available to Site Members. This tool will download a .csv file for the View being displayed. For dynamically-generated tables (such as a Stock or ETF Screener) where you see more than 1000 rows of data, the download will be limited to only the first 1000 records on the table. For other static pages (such as the Russell 3000 Components list) all rows will be downloaded.

Free members are limited to 5 downloads per day, while Barchart Premier Members may download up to 100 .csv files per day.

Note: Due to licensing restrictions, Canadian fundamental data cannot be downloaded from Barchart.com. You will see N/L in a downloaded column when this is the case.

Should you require more than 100 downloads per day, please contact Barchart Sales at 866-333-7587 or email solutions@barchart.com for more information or additional options about historical market data.

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